AN INTEGRATED GIS–REMOTE SENSING FRAMEWORK FOR ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ASSESSMENT AND SUSTAINABLE URBAN DEVELOPMENT UNDER SPAIN–UK CLIMATE ADAPTATION POLICIES: A JOINT ICTA-UAB–UCL RESEARCH INITIATIVE

Abstract

Rapid urbanization, accelerating climate change, and increasing environmental pressures have intensified the need for integrated spatial assessment and climate-resilient urban development strategies. This study develops an integrated Geographic Information System (GIS)–remote sensing framework for environmental risk assessment, spatial vulnerability mapping, and sustainable urban planning under Spain–UK climate adaptation policies. The research investigates Barcelona, Spain, and London, United Kingdom, using multisource geospatial, climatic, environmental, and urban development datasets covering 2018–2025. The dataset comprises 2,400 Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8/9 satellite observations, 1,800 meteorological records, 650 land-use and land-cover samples, and 420 urban environmental assessment units. Satellite imagery undergoes atmospheric correction, cloud masking, spectral index extraction, and spatial harmonization to characterize urban expansion, vegetation degradation, land surface temperature, impervious surface distribution, and environmental exposure. An integrated Analytical Hierarchy Process–Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (AHP–MCDA) approach is employed to determine environmental indicator weights and construct a Composite Environmental Risk Index. Random Forest and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithms are implemented for environmental vulnerability classification and predictive spatial risk assessment. The reported findings demonstrate that XGBoost achieves 93.6% classification accuracy, 92.8% precision, 91.9% recall, 92.3% F1-score, and 0.96 ROC-AUC, outperforming Random Forest, which achieves 90.4% accuracy and 0.93 ROC-AUC. Spatial vulnerability analysis identifies 28.7% of evaluated urban units as high-risk zones, predominantly associated with elevated surface temperatures, declining vegetation coverage, extensive impervious surfaces, and increasing environmental exposure. Scenario-based assessments indicate that targeted green infrastructure development, vegetation restoration, and adaptive land-use interventions could reduce composite environmental risk scores by approximately 17.5%. The findings are interpreted within Spain’s National Climate Change Adaptation Plan 2021–2030 and the United Kingdom’s Third National Adaptation Programme, emphasizing opportunities for strengthening climate-responsive environmental governance and urban planning. Overall, the integrated framework provides a transferable, data-driven approach for environmental risk prioritization, predictive vulnerability assessment, and sustainable urban development, supporting evidence-based climate adaptation strategies and enhanced metropolitan resilience across European urban environments through coordinated geospatial monitoring and adaptive planning.