DIGITAL TWIN AND AI-ENABLED RESILIENT INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING FOR FLOOD AND EARTHQUAKE RISK REDUCTION IN PAKISTAN

Abstract

Pakistan is increasingly vulnerable to floods and earthquakes due to rapid urbanization, climate change, aging infrastructure, and inadequate disaster preparedness systems. Conventional infrastructure planning approaches are often reactive and lack the predictive capabilities required to enhance resilience against natural hazards. This study examined the role of Digital Twin Capability and AI-Enabled Predictive Analytics in improving Resilient Infrastructure Planning for Flood and Earthquake Risk Reduction in Pakistan, while investigating the moderating role of Digital Governance Capacity. Grounded in Dynamic Capabilities Theory, the study employed a quantitative, cross-sectional research design. Data were collected from 400 professionals involved in infrastructure planning, disaster management, engineering, and urban development across Pakistan using a structured questionnaire. The proposed hypotheses were tested using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) with SmartPLS 4. The findings revealed that Digital Twin Capability and AI-Enabled Predictive Analytics significantly enhanced Resilient Infrastructure Planning, which subsequently improved Flood and Earthquake Risk Reduction. The results further demonstrated that Resilient Infrastructure Planning mediated the relationships between the technological capabilities and disaster risk reduction, while Digital Governance Capacity significantly strengthened the positive effects of Digital Twin Capability and AI-enabled predictive analytics on infrastructure resilience. The study contributes to the literature by integrating Digital Twin technology, Artificial Intelligence, and Dynamic Capabilities Theory within the context of disaster-resilient infrastructure planning in a developing economy. The findings provide valuable theoretical, managerial, and policy implications for promoting intelligent infrastructure systems, strengthening digital governance, and advancing sustainable disaster risk management in Pakistan.