APPLICATIONS OF MATHEMATICAL MODELING IN CLIMATE CHANGE PREDICTION

Abstract

The present study was concerned with the contribution of mathematical modelling for predicting the climate change and forecasting environments from the eyes of domain experts. The study employed a qualitative case study research design and data were collected using semi-structured interviews, expert consultation and systematic document analysis of climate reports, modelling studies and scientific publications. Twenty-four individuals were intentionally selected to represent climate scientists, environmental scientists, applied mathematicians and climate policy experts from research institutions, government agencies and international environmental organizations. Thematic content analysis was utilized to examine the prominent themes emerging from the compiled content, covering aspects such as the model's applicability, predictive capability, scientific challenges, uncertainty handling, and the function of mathematical modeling in the context of climate policy development. Mathematical models were found to be crucial for long range climate forecasting but this was dependent upon data quality, ability to compute and inter-disciplinary collaboration. The specific challenges identified by the experts were uncertainty quantification, model validation and policy decision making from technical output. The improved mathematical models, the study said, together with effective scientific communication and institutional investment, could significantly improve the evidence base for adaptation and mitigation strategies to climate change. The results are particularly relevant to developing countries such as Pakistan where climate vulnerability is high and modelling infrastructure and technical capacity is limited.

Keywords : Mathematical model is a system of equations that is usually simplified and idealised to capture the essence of a complex system. Mathematical modelling is a system of equations that is typically simplified and idealised to capture the essence of a complex system. The phenomena is explored using qualitative research and thematic analysis. Climate change prediction and environmental forecasting, uncertainty quantification, climate policy, general circulation models, Science Policy interface, Pakistan.